Research from global tax firm Ryan has predicted that the Chancellor’s decision not to freeze business rates will raise an additional £12bn for the Treasury over the next four years, with the inflation-backed windfall nearly double what the OBR had projected.
HM Treasury is expected to make an additional £12bn from business rate rises over the next four years, as inflation continues to push up the cost of doing business.
Firms across England had been expected to pay a total of £106bn by 2029, however the Chancellor’s decision not to freeze rates has pushed the potential bill up to £118bn.
“The £12bn increase, which only covers England, is significantly larger than previous estimates by the Office for Budget Responsibility,” reported The Telegraph. “The budget watchdog forecast that the bill for business rates across the UK would rise by £6.7bn over this parliament.”
“The sharp increase in the forecast comes as economists predict a fresh surge in inflation, sparked by the war in Iran. The Bank of England has warned the rate of price rises could climb as high as 6.2 percent later this year.”
Responding to the research, Greene King CEO Nick Mackenzie said: “We have long said permanent reform of business rates is essential, alongside other measures to reduce the huge regulatory burden pubs face.”
“Inflation-linked rises are another example of how this outdated system is adding unnecessary costs for pubs, which must be addressed if the Government is to deliver on its promise to back the industry.”
The Conservative Post was also quick to criticise the government’s handling of the hospitality industry, writing “taxpayers are entitled to ask a fair question. How long can Britain continue squeezing productive businesses, pubs and employers harder every year while expecting them to carry an ever expanding tax burden?”
A burden too far?
Conservative Post said… “…taxpayers are entitled to ask a fair question. How long can Britain continue squeezing productive businesses, pubs and employers harder every year while expecting them to carry an ever expanding tax burden?”
Originally published on Coinslot on May 25, 2026. Republished with permission.